U.S. Legal vs Illicit Cannabis Market Demand


  • Cannabis use rates will continue to rise as legalized medical and adult-use programs spread across the U.S. and become normalized.
  • Rising usage rates coupled with natural population growth will result in a growing illicit market.
  • However, the rate of growth for an illicit market will be tempered (roughly 2% average per year through 2025) due to the activation and growth of regulated dispensary sales in key state markets, i.e., California, Massachusetts, and Florida.
  • While the legal market equated to less than 1/3 the size of the illicit market in 2017, it is projected to grow to roughly 3/4 the size of the illicit market by 2025.

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