New Frontier Data Downgrades CA Cannabis Sales Projections by $2 Billion

May 22, 2018

WashingtonNew Frontier Data, the authority in data, analytics and business intelligence in the cannabis industry, has refined our state market projections for California in light of the state’s recent lower than expected cannabis excise-tax revenues for Q1 2018. The state collected $33.6 million between January 1 and March 31, which put them significantly behind pace to meet original expectations for collecting $175 million within the first six months of 2018. We have reduced our latest sales projections for 2018 from $3.8 billion to $1.9 billion. And by 2025, our forecast for total California sales to be $4.72 billion instead our previously projected $6.7 billion.

“It is quite clear that the new adult use regulations have made it more difficult than anticipated for the legal market to get established and for consumers to transition to from the illicit market. Given the number of local government bans on cannabis businesses, we are not seeing the same kind of conversion rates that we have seen in other legal markets,” said Giadha Aguirre De Carcer, New Frontier Data CEO and Founder.

Based on our revised projections, the 2018 California legal cannabis market will be worth an estimated $1.92 billion and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7%, to reach almost $4.72 billion by 2025. The medical market is projected to decline at -5.4% CAGR through 2025, shrinking from $1.12 billion in 2018 to an estimated $760 million in 2025. During the same period, adult use sales are projected to grow at a 25.5% CAGR, from $805 million to $3.96 billion.

To adjust our projections, New Frontier Data looked at two key aspects of the California market; our analysts redefined what a legal medical patient is and lowered the conversation rate for illicit market consumers transitioning to legal adult-use market consumers.

“Closely monitoring the environment and adjusting our analysis to reflect new data is at the core of what we do. As the industry grows and becomes more data-centric, we look forward to continuing to expand and refine our projections, thus providing the most sophisticated view possible to industry stakeholders. In an industry that is evolving in such a highly dynamic way, it is critical that we identify and incorporate new data from evolving market trends to refine the precision of our estimates,” said Aguirre De Carcer.

About New Frontier Data:

New Frontier Data provides objective, rigorous and comprehensive analysis and reporting about the nascent and underserved cannabis industry worldwide. New Frontier Data’s analytics and reports have been cited in over 65 countries around the world to inform industry leaders, investors, policymakers and others. New Frontier Data, the premiere and only Big Data shop in the sector, looks beyond plant cultivation and distribution to raise the industry bar and improve visibility into what will inevitably soon be a mature and more complex global market. Founded in 2014, New Frontier Data is headquartered in Washington, D.C. and has additional offices in Denver, Colorado.

New Frontier Data does not take a position on the merits of cannabis legalization. Rather, its mission and mandate are to inform cannabis-related policy and business decisions through rigorous, issue-neutral and comprehensive analysis of the legal cannabis industry. For more information about New Frontier Data please visit:


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